About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 8 October 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 09

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2549, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9980, 1.95%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3349, -0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1275, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
49.29, -4.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.03, 2.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1382, -0.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1731, -0.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
112.62, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9887, -0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
37.18, 0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.37%, 1.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
912, 14.73%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.65, 1.47%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
140
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2512, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2480, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2396, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9975, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9945, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9311, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.12, -10.95%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.44, 0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

7
Bearish Indications
6
6
Outlook
Neutral
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
UK – Manufacturing production change, U.S – PPI, Oil inventories, Retail sales, CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals october 09

The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2560 (up) and 2540 (down) on the S & P and 10050 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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