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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 3 September 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning September 4



Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2477, 1.37%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9974, 1.17%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3367, 1.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1330, 2.50%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
47.29, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.12, 2.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1184, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1850, -0.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.28, 0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
9356, 2.43%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.11, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.16%, -0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
267, 54.89%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
10.13, -10.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
135
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2453, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2453, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2362, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9885, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9832, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9090, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.68, -7.14%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
63.81, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
12

13

Bearish Indications
3
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty moved up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Japan - GDP, Australia – GDP, Rate decision, Retail sales,  Euro Zone – Rate decision, UK – PMI’s, Canada – Rate decision, Employment data, PMI,  U.S – ISM data, Oil inventories






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



stock market signals september 4
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2485 (up) and 2465 (down) on the S & P and 10050 (up) and 9900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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