About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 19 November 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 20

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2579, -0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10284, -0.37%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3383, -1.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1297, 1.75%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
56.71, -0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
3.07, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1361, -8.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1792, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.13, -1.23%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9483, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.79, 0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.35%, -1.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
308, -35.79%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.43, 1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
137
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2578, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2547, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2441, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10307, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10133, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9600, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.71, 1.76%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.90, -0.74%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

6
Bearish Indications
5
6
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA minutes, Euro zone – ECB minutes, German GDP, German IFO business climate index, Draghi speech, German PMI, UK – GDP, Employment data, U.S – Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, Durable goods, Oil inventories, Existing home sales, Canada – Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals november 20

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2590 (up) and 2570 (down) on the S & P and 10350 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Thursday, 16 November 2017

Some Developing Bearish Divergences

Sunday, 12 November 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 13

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2582, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10322, -1.25%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3433, 1.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1274, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
56.74, 1.98%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.08, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1481, -1.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1664, 0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
113.53, -0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9501, -2.60%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.68, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.40%, 2.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
480, -20.92%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.29, 23.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
131
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2574, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2536, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2434, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10302, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10100, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9549, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.48, 13.14%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.38, 1.12%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

6
Bearish Indications
7
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, Japan – GDP, Euro zone – German GDP, CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, Draghi speech,UK – CPI, Carney speech, Retail sales, Employment data, U.S – Yellen speech, PPI, Oil inventories, CPI, Retail sales, Canada – CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals november 13

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2595 (up) and 2570(down) on the S & P and 10400 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.