About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 9 December 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 11

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2652, 0.35%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10266, 1.43%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3290, -0.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1248, -2.64%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
57.36, -1.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.98, -3.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1679, 6.40%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1773, -1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
113.46, 1.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10403, 2.12%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.76, 0.03%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.38%, 0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
488, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
US Vix
9.58, -16.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
133
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2609, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2581, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2461, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10247, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10206, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9714, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.67, -7.59%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.49, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
9
Bearish Indications
6
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, Japan – Tankan business survey, China – Industrial production, Euro Zone – German ZEW economic sentiment, German PMI, ECB rate decision, UK – CPI, PMI, CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Rate decision, Switzerland – Rate decision, U.S – PPI, Oil inventories, CPI, FOMC rate decision, Retail sales, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals december 11


The S and P 500 made a new high and the Nifty moved up last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2660 (up) and 2640 (down) on the S & P and 10350 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Wednesday, 6 December 2017

Yield Curve about to Invert?

The spread between 10 year US bonds and 2 year US bonds is currently at 5 year lows and will likely go negative post the fed rate hike next week. This would most likely cause the US yield curve to eventually invert and is a harbinger of a decelerating/recessionary economy going forward. Will tax cuts save the day? I doubt it.

Saturday, 2 December 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 04

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2642, 1.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10122, -2.58%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3318, -1.08%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1282, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
58.36, -1.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.09, -2.41%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1578, 9.20%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1896, -0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.13, 0.55%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10187, 5.89%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.75, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.36%, 0.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
487, 25.11%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.43, 18.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2597, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2568, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2454, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10298, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10183, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
9680, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.80, 9.49%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.54, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8

5
Bearish Indications
5
9
Outlook
Bullish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 made new highs and the Nifty broke down last week. Indicators are mixed.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Retail sales, Rate decision, GDP, Japan – GDP, UK – PMI’s, Manufacturing production, U.S –Oil inventories, ISM PMI, Employment data, Canada – PMI, Rate decision, India – RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals december 04

The S and P 500 made a new high and the Nifty broke down last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. It is looking rather ominous for the Indian market given the under-performance. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2650 (up) and 2630 (down) on the S & P and 10200 (up) and 10000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.